30-Day Weather Outlook for October 24, 2016, to November 24, 2016
Summary - The basic pattern consists of the westerlies continuing to be active, with rains on October 24-27, 29-31, and November 6-14. Early support for a longwave trough in the central northern Pacific (160-170W) will continue to propagate east, reaching finally into mainly northern California during November 6-14th. Off and on rains through October 31 are followed by a dry break during November 1-5th. A very wet pattern covers northern and northcentral California during November 6-14th with limited support for a few rains in southcentral and southern California.
In the Near Term – October 29 – November 17…The NOAA/CPC outlook for November 1-7th shows continued warmer than normal conditions throughout California. Rainfall is above normal over most of the state during this period. In general, this pattern is consistent with the forcing from sea surface temperature anomalies. With the more active pattern, the dry periods will be shorter in duration, with still some warm and dry episodes for a few days in early November.
In the Southern California avocado growing areas rains or showers occur October 28-31st. It will be dry and warmer on November 1-4th, following a locally cold morning November 1st. More rains develop about November 6 after a possible frost on the morning of the 5th.
Summary – November 13 – November 27… In the southern California avocado growing areas it will be showery or some rains possible from November 13-18th, then cold overnights with frosts on the 19-20th followed by dry warm northeast winds on the 20-24th, then cold nights (frost) 25-27th.
Seasonal Outlook/La Niña Update...November 28 – January 24…During this period, the cold La Niña anomaly will continue near maximum extent in the equatorial east and central Pacific. Sea surface temperature anomalies support weakening of troughs upon approach to California, but deepening of troughs into the Great Basin. The CFSv2 guidance shows drier and warmer than normal for December and January.
For southern California there is higher than normal risk for dry windy Santa Anas alternating with a few showery cold fronts in December and January, but with rainfall remaining below normal in southern California for mid-January onward after some rains earlier in January, and during December 22-28th.
...Alan Fox, Fox Weather LLC...