Results of CAC’s 2016-17 Mid-Season Grower Crop Estimate Survey
The 2016-17 grower crop survey responses have been compiled and the results of the California avocado mid-season crop estimate update are now available online.
The mid-season crop update is compiled by applying survey responses to predefined avocado acreage by area, to project an estimated total industry volume. Avocado acreage is updated through an acreage inventory survey conducted annually in the spring (results of the 2016 acreage survey can be found here). In recent years, the California Avocado Commission (CAC) has used bearing acreage (producing + topped/stumped classification) to calculate the mid-season crop update and, on average, actual volume has been within six percent of the mid-season estimate.
In calculating the 2016-17 mid-season update, using bearing acres, the survey results yielded a crop volume nearly 30 million pounds higher than the pre-season estimate of 215 million pounds. In reviewing the California crop that had already been harvested, as well as industry stakeholder input, these results did not seem feasible. Therefore, crop survey results — specifically estimated yield per acre, by area — were thoroughly reviewed a second time and were deemed to be plausible. With these factors in play, the crop team turned to the bearing acreage figures being utilized to form the estimate, and instead ran the estimate using only producing avocado acreage. The results from this analysis produced an estimated crop size of 212.3 million pounds, which supports crop and industry indicators to-date.
These survey results were presented to the CAC Board in May and there was support to move forward using producing acres and a mid-season estimate update of 212.3 million pounds. While crop estimating can be difficult to perfect, CAC management will continue to review, monitor and evaluate the datasets available to estimate the California crop in an effort to continually provide the industry with the most accurate statistics possible.