Weather Outlook

30-Day Weather Outlook for December 11, 2017, to January 11, 2018

  • Dec 12, 2017

Summary- The MJO Cycle has been in an active state for about a week. GFS model solutions are suggesting support for more energetic sub-tropical westerlies around 30N, coming into S California. However, the active phase of the MJO cycle appears near maximum on Dec 11, and some transition to less activity and energy into the subtropical westerlies appears to begin after the 17th.

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30-Day Weather Outlook for December 4, 2017, to January 4, 2018

  • Dec 05, 2017

Summary- The MJO Cycle has been in an inactive state, but is progressing in a more active state during Dec 5-12th. This may facilitate slightly more active subtropical westerlies developing towards central California, but this is not confirmed by current model guidance. Support continues in the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) field for troughing well to the west of California, centered...

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30-Day Weather Outlook for November 27, 2017, to December 27, 2017

  • Nov 28, 2017

Summary- The MJO Cycle supports an inactive phase for the westerly storm track that normally traverses California in Dec. The Cycle and overall pattern have settled into a currently stable state with little overall change. Support continues in the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) field for troughing well to the west of California, centered about 140-150W. This maintains a dry and warmer...

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30-Day Weather Outlook for November 13, 2017, to December 13, 2017

  • Nov 14, 2017

Summary- The MJO Cycle is beginning the transition from a dry (inactive) phase to favor more active troughing into California and the far west US. The transition should be completed between Nov 17-18th. Support exists in the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) field for a long wave trough in the central N Pacific around 150W, and a second trough near 125-130W.

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30-Day Weather Outlook for November 6, 2017, to December 6, 2017

  • Nov 07, 2017

Summary- The MJO Cycle is transitioning from a troughing (wet) phase to a dry one. The transition should be completed between November 14th and 17th. Support exists in the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) field for a long wave trough in the central N Pacific around 160-170W, and second trough near 130W.

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30-Day Weather Outlook for October 30, 2017, to November 30, 2017

  • Oct 31, 2017

Summary- The wet (troughing) part of the MJO Cycle will dominate during Nov 3-12. Rains occur in N, central and S California during this period, and some locally heavy rains are possible. Support exists in the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) field for a long wave trough in the east-central North Pacific 140-145W, and a trough around 120-105W (central and S California E through the southern...

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