Summary- The MJO Cycle that was in an inactive phase on March 5-9th heads into a more active phase during the 12-20. This will tend to encourage development of storms during the 11-23. Support continues in the mid-latitude Pacific sea surface temperature field for high pressure near 170W, a longwave trough near 135-140W and moist flow into N and central California with significant rains.
Summary- The MJO Cycle was heading into an inactive phase on Feb 26. This should discourage development of storms and active fronts into California during March 4-10. Support continues in the mid-latitude Pacific sea surface temperature field, for high pressure just south of the Aleutians, and increased westerlies into the Pacific Northwest coast and N California during the first part of March.
Summary- The MJO Cycle was in another maximum on Feb 18-19th. The expected increase in the number of frontal passages has occurred, and precipitation amounts started to increase in the Sierras (snow). Support continues for a westward relocation of troughing from 115W to about 130-140W over the next two weeks.
Summary- The MJO Cycle has passed maximum as of 12th. The expected increase in in number of frontal passages has occurred, but rain amounts have remained small.
Summary- The MJO Cycle is near maximum during early to mid Feb. There is the expected increase in the number of frontal passages, but the activity is either north occurring in Washington State about Feb 20-28th, or in Nevada-Arizona, and SE California deserts about Feb 10-15th.
Summary- The MJO Cycle is becoming more active. As this occurs, there should be a more normal increase in number of frontal passages through California and more typical February rainfall/snowfall for Feb 15-25. Support continues in the mid-latitude sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) field W of California to anchor the troughing at 140-150W, and a persistent ridge at 120-130W, then another...