Large Scale Summary
- The longwave pattern supports a tendency for occasional troughs near the California coast between the Bay Area and SE California. SSW flow is well west of California at 150-160W. Mostly weak troughing is supported in the subtropical North Pacific from 160 to 150W in agreement with the IVTinit pattern.
- Precipitation dates with the current pattern: Dates in MAR: Central Sierras are 23,24,25,26.
- NOAA/CPC/NWS still tends toward below average precipitation in Mar for all of California, and near or above average for the ORWA coast from northern WA state north to Vancouver Island British Columbia, to the Alaska state line.
- Briefing for Mar in SOCAL and South-Central California: Warmer than average in Central and S California in March. The south half of California including SOCAL appears to be warmer and drier than average. The Sierras appear to have below average precipitation but still a little warmer than average with high snow levels expected. April rainfallÖnear average in central and S California, but above average in southern-Central Sierras, and in the mountains of Southern California.
- For May 2026 we see from the NOAA guidance a tendency for mild temperatures and about average precipitation, below average in NORCAL.
Near Term Outlook
NORCAL
- PRECIPITATION DATES: MAR 22-24
- MILD to WARM/DRY PERIODS: MAR 27-28
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS AND COLD: MAR 21-25
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION DATES: MAR 22-24
- MILD AND DRY: MAR 25-27
- CENTRAL SIERRA SNOWS: MAR 22-24
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION DATES: MAR 23-24
- COLD/FREEZES DRY WINDS:FREEZES VALLEYS MAR 22-24
- MOUNTAIN SNOW: MAR 23-24.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS
- PRECIPITATION DATES. MAR 23-24 MOUNTAINS
- MOUNTAIN SNOW: NOT CALCULATED
Medium Term Outlook: APRIL 2026
NORCAL
- PRECIPITATION: PRECIP MOSTLY NEAR AVERAGE IN THE EAST .BELOW IN WEST/N COAST
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS: BELOW AVERAGE, HIGH SNOW LEVELS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION: MOSTLY NEAR AVERAGE IN SIERRAS, BELOW AVERAGE ELSEWHERE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION: NEAR AVERAGE. BEST CHANCE SHOWERS: MID APR TO MID MAY
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS
- PRECIPITATION: NEAR AVERAGE. BEST CHANCE SHOWERS: MID APR TO MID MAY.
Figures and Text: Alan Fox, Fox Weather, LLC
Copyright © 2026 Fox Weather, LLC.