30-Day Weather Outlook for October 30, 2024, to November 30, 2024

  • Nov 04, 2024

BASIC PATTERN:

Large Scale Pattern

  1. Rain Dates from GFS and CFSv2 models: Oct 30, 31, Nov 1, Nov 11-12,21-25, 29-30.
  2. Support for troughing continues in the eastern N Pacific 137-146W, and in the Central Pacific from 160W to the Dateline.
  3. Although persistently warmer than average temperatures are indicated for California in the Nov – Dec time frame, a return to near average temperatures appear more likely to redevelop in January after a warm period.  February appears to return to near average precipitation, with usual mountain snows.
  4. For forestry and late fall Fire Season 2024 in NORCAL and Sierras. Bottom line is: recurring warm and breezy periods with rapid shifts to cold and showery, with snow in the mountain areas (Sierras, Rockies, and into N Arizona. Precipitation consists of mostly small or below average amounts for SOCAL and most of the Sierras for rain and snow.
  5. Southcentral and S California appear to have below average rainfall in early Nov.  There is a normally occurring seasonal pattern shift thatoccurs in mid Nov. This is usually a nice ‘wake-up-call’ that reminds us that winter is coming. For season 2024-25 we could actually see two wet months: one in mid November, and the other in Jan – Feb.
  6. The monthly outlook maps from the CFSv2 model are posted at the end of this report (pdf version). Other than some showers for Central and  S California in mid to late Nov, predicted rain amounts  appear to continue below average through most of Dec. After some mid November rains, the main rains  of winter are currently not expected to develop until January-February 2025, with possibly a few showers around the December holidays.

 

Forecast for Northern California
NORCAL Precipitation: Oct 30,31, Nov 1,11-12,21-25, 29-30.
NORCAL Warm/Dry Periods: Nov 7-8.
NORCAL Cold or Frost Periods: Nov 2-4, 11-12,13-14,22-27,29-30.
North Sierra Precipitation: Oct 30-31,Nov 1,11-12,21-25, 29-30.
Central Sierra Precipitation: Oct 30-31,Nov 1,11-12,21-25, 29-30.

Forecast for Central California 
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA Precipitation: Oct 30,31, Nov 1,11-12,21-25, 29-30.    
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WARM DRY PERIODS: Nov 7-8.     
Central California Cold Periods: Oct 30-31, Nov 1-4,8-9,12-13,16-20,23-28. 

Forecast for Southern California
SOCAL PRECIPITATION: Nov 10, 11-12, 22-25.    
SOCAL WARM PERIODS: Overall, temperatures remain above average, consistent with what was forecasted by the NOAA/NCEP/CPC 30 day monthly outlook map for Nov. Southern California Cool or Cold Periods: Oct 30-31, Nov 1-4,8-9,12-13,16-20,23-28. 

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The listings of dates normally included for hot and cold spells, and precipitation are approximate. They are based on GFS and our CFSDaily and CFSDailyAI products; and present expected trends in precipitation and temperature (FoxCFSDailyAI) to 5km. Our AI system gives some consideration to terrain and coastal influence. Although we consider the CFSv2 one of the better ways to represent basic weather in the sub-monthly time scale,  performance of the CFSDaily. CFSv2 daily products during storm seasons has  been especially inconsistent and difficult to apply to the useful criterion  needed by cropland agriculture, and viticulture beyond the 15ñday GFS.

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Southern California Deserts Outlook
SOCAL deserts: above average temperatures, and below average rainfall for the period. However, it appears that there are some cold and showery/rainy events in S California deserts on Nov 10-13,and 21-25 in higher terrain.

Looking Farther Ahead
Precipitation is mostly below average for Nov and Dec. Mid Nov turns briefly near or little above average for precipitation in NORCAL and north-central Sierras for a few days about 14-21 Nov. Dec returns to  subnormal rainfall in NORCAL from Bay Area north. Heavy rains at ORWA coast and coastal mountains with higher than average snow levels occur ORWA region (Oregon, Washington). In midwinter, heaviest rains occur mainly coast/Cascades, due to Atmospheric Rivers in Jan-Feb. Smaller amounts of these rains in ORWA reaches into NORCAL and N Sierras.  Bottom line, while ORWA receives heavy rains, NORCAL and Central California only receive light amounts. Dry and warmer weather returns to Sierras and Central-S California in Feb. Freezes continue possible in SOCAL valleys Riverside-San Diego Co’s at times in Jan and Feb following the drier cold front episodes.

 

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